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Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory -- Tampa

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000
WTUS82 KTBW 111032
HLSTBW
FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-111845-

Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 49
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL  AL112017
632 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

 **IRMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN 
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA** 


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued and the Hurricane 
      Warning has been cancelled for Coastal Charlotte, Coastal 
      Hillsborough, Coastal Lee, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, 
      DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Inland Charlotte, Inland 
      Hillsborough, Inland Lee, Inland Manatee, Inland Sarasota, 
      Pinellas, and Polk

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for DeSoto, Hardee, 
      Highlands, Inland Charlotte, Inland Hillsborough, Inland 
      Manatee, Inland Sarasota, and Polk
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for 
      Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Levy, and Coastal 
      Pasco
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect 
      for Coastal Charlotte, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Lee, 
      Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, Inland Lee, and Pinellas
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Citrus, Inland 
      Hernando, Inland Levy, Inland Pasco, and Sumter

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 30 miles east-southeast of Cedar Key FL
    - 28.9N 82.6W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 18 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Irma is continuing to produce dangerous wind gusts
over portions of west central and southwest Florida as it moves north 
through the state. 

Along with the wind threat, storm surge is still a concern as winds
turn onshore in the wake of Hurricane Irma.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across 
west-central and southwest Florida.. Remain well sheltered from 
life-threatening wind having devastating impacts. If realized, 
these impacts include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof 
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage 
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations 
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and 
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access 
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across 
coastal west-central and southwest Florida. Remain well away from 
life-threatening surge having extensive impacts. If realized, these
impacts include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding 
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, 
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating 
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads 
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and 
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many 
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in 
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Potential impacts from the main surge event will soon be unfolding 
across west-central Florida as the center of Hurricane Irma continues
to move north and the winds become onshore. Remain well away from 
life-threatening surge having significant impacts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Do not return to evacuated areas until hazardous winds diminish and 
flood waters abate.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to remain safely sheltered from the storm. Stay 
inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case 
you lose electrical power. Locate your battery powered radio and 
flashlight from your Emergency Supplies Kit. Keep these items close.

Continue to keep your cell phone well charged for as long as 
possible. If you lose power, use it more sparingly and mainly for 
personal emergencies and check-ins. Do not overload communications 
systems with idle chatter.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or 
videos. Be wise and avoid becoming another statistic.

Be ready to move to the identified safe room if your home or shelter 
begins to fail. Quickly move to an interior room on the lowest floor. 
Put as many sturdy walls between you and the storm as you can. 
Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around around 1 PM EDT, or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

$$

Public Advisory

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ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

...IRMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 82.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning along
the Florida west coast south of Anclote River to Bonita Beach, along
the Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet,
and for Lake Okeechobee.

The Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued for the Florida Keys,
Florida Bay, the Florida east coast south of Jupiter Inlet,
the Florida west coast south of Bonita Beach, and for the
Northwestern Bahamas.

The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued for the Florida Keys and
the Florida coast from North Miami Beach southward around the
Florida peninsula to Cape Sable.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* Cape Sable northward to the Ochlockonee River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Fernandina Beach
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
* South of Anclote River to Bonita Beach
* South of Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 82.6 West. Irma is moving toward
the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the Florida
Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into
southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern
Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm this morning and to a
tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.

Irma has a very large wind field.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the west of the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).
The Mayport Naval Station near Jacksonville, Florida, recently
reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind gust of 87
mph (141 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...2 to 4 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...1 to 2
ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions should continue over portions of the
northern Florida peninsula for the next several hours.  Tropical
storm conditions will continue across other portions of the central
and northern Florida peninsula, and spread into the eastern Florida
Panhandle and southern Georgia this morning.  Tropical storm and
hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the
remainder of the warning areas through today.

Rainfall:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

The Florida Keys and southern Florida peninsula: additional 1 inch.

Central Florida peninsula: additional 1 to 3 inches.

Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6
inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches.

Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to
inches, isolated 10 inches.

Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi,
southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and
western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

Hurricane Irma Discussion

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 110903
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

Irma is continuing to weaken as it moves across the western Florida
peninsula, with the eye dissipating and weakening banding near the
center.  There are no recent observations of hurricane-force winds
near the center, but based on the premise that such winds still
exist over the Gulf of Mexico west of the center the initial
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.  It should be noted that near-
hurricane force winds are occurring in a band well northeast of the
center with sustained winds of 60 kt reported in the Jacksonville
area.  The cyclone should continue to weaken as it moves through
the southeastern United States, becoming a tropical storm later
today, a tropical depression by 36 h, and a remnant low by 48 h. The
large-scale models forecast Irma to dissipate completely by 72 h,
so the 72 h point has been removed from the forecast.

The initial motion is 340/16.  The cyclone is expected to move
around the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance currently located
along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which should cause a north-northwestward
to northwestward motion until dissipation.  The forecast track
takes the center across the eastern Florida Panhandle, southwestern
Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and eventually into western
Tennessee.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding
along portions of the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina,
where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind impacts to much
of central and north Florida, with hurricane-force winds near the
center.  Also, Irma is a large hurricane, and hurricane-force wind
gusts and sustained tropical-storm force winds extend far from the
center. Wind hazards from Irma will continue to spread northward
through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South
Carolina, and North Carolina.

3. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding
across much of the northern peninsula and eastern panhandle of
Florida and southern Georgia, which is quickly spreading to the rest
of the southeast United States.  Intense rainfall rates of 2 inches
or more per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on
creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely
over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern
Georgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches are
expected.  Significant river flooding is possible beginning Monday
and Tuesday in much of central Georgia and southern South Carolina
where average rainfall of 3 to 6 inches and isolated 10 inch amounts
are expected. Portions of these states within the southern
Appalachians will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding.
Farther north and west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts
of 2 to 4 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee,
northern South Carolina and western North Carolina, where isolated
higher amounts and local flooding may occur.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 28.9N  82.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/1800Z 30.8N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/0600Z 33.0N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/1800Z 34.5N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/0600Z 35.5N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory

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ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH...
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER
INLET...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO CAPE SABLE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET
* CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH
* SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  82.6W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.
34 KT.......360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..470NE 270SE 480SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  82.6W AT 11/0900Z...INLAND
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  82.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.8N  83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...220NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.0N  85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N  87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.5N  89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N  82.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NNNN

Wind speed probabilities

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HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  49                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017               
0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
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